MLB DFS Picks Today: Top DraftKings Targets & Values (July 17)

A 14-game MLB slate is set for Friday, July 17th, presenting numerous options for DraftKings DFS players. This briefing analyzes potential studs and values at pitcher and across the infield and outfield to help construct optimal fantasy lineups Source.

Pitcher Breakdown

Stud: Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers ($8,700)

Troy Melton of the Detroit Tigers is highlighted as a stud pitcher. He's young, throws a 96 mph fastball, limits walks, and manages barrels effectively. Melton boasts an impressive 1.82 ERA over 49.1 innings.

While his FIP of 4.07 suggests potential regression due to a low .172 BABIP and 96.3% strand rate, his recent performance tells a different story. Over his last four starts, Melton has posted strong DraftKings fantasy points: 31, 26.4, 22.3, and 22.5 FPTS. He faces an Angels team that leads MLB in strikeout rate and ranks 20th in wRC+, providing a favorable matchup despite underlying stats.

Value: Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates ($7,200)

Jared Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates offers value with his 98.6 mph fastball and 27.1% strikeout rate. His 3.67 FIP is lower than his 4.37 ERA, indicating some unluckiness. However, his early season stats were inconsistent, with only three double-digit FPTS outings in his first seven starts and only one start over five innings.

Jones's last outing was stellar, throwing six perfect innings with eight strikeouts against the Braves, though on a low pitch count of 77. He faces the Cleveland Guardians, who are last in ISO and 25th in wRC+, which helps balance the risk associated with his historical pitch count limitations.

Infield Targets

Stud: T.J. Rumfield, Colorado Rockies ($4,000)

T.J. Rumfield of the Colorado Rockies is a stud infield target, especially in his home park. Despite a low average exit velocity (83.8 mph) and bat speed (68.9 mph), Rumfield has amassed 12 home runs, 42 runs, and 47 RBIs in 384 plate appearances. He maintains a solid 10.4% walk rate and a low 13.8% strikeout rate, often batting cleanup.

The matchup against the Reds is particularly appealing. Cincinnati's bullpen has the second-highest FIP at 5.12, and Friday's starter, Brady Singer, has a 5.61 FIP and has given up 20 home runs in 89.2 innings. Coors Field is known to be hitter-friendly, and 14 of Singer's allowed home runs have come from lefties. Rumfield, a right-handed batter, has hit 11 of his homers against righties and has a 142 wRC+ and .223 ISO against them.

Value: Ryan McMahon, New York Yankees ($2,300)

Ryan McMahon of the New York Yankees is an intriguing value play. Despite a .214 batting average and high 32% strikeout rate, he shows respectable power with a 90.9 mph average exit velocity and an 11.1% barrel rate. All nine of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, where he holds a .194 ISO.

He faces Roki Sasaki, who has struggled outside of a four-start stretch in May. Sasaki has allowed 19 home runs overall, with 10 coming from left-handed batters. Against lefties, Sasaki has an 11.4% K-BB% and a 5.50 FIP, making McMahon a potentially undervalued option.

Outfield Selections

Stud: Cole Carrigg, Colorado Rockies ($4,200)

Cole Carrigg of the Colorado Rockies is another strong play, part of the strategy to stack against Singer and the Reds' bullpen at Coors Field. Carrigg has a .273/.356/.515 slash line in 119 plate appearances, with a 10.9% walk rate, 21.8% strikeout rate, and .242 ISO.

Though his average exit velocity is 85.9 mph, his bat speed is 73.5 mph. As a switch-hitter, he's effective from both sides, but his .286 ISO and 145 wRC+ against righties are particularly strong. This makes him an excellent DraftKings target in what projects to be a high-scoring game.

Value: Alan Roden, Minnesota Twins ($2,200)

Alan Roden of the Minnesota Twins is a value outfielder recently called up. In 16 plate appearances, he has a .214/.313/.214 slash line but boasts an impressive 12.5% walk rate and 18.8% strikeout rate. His underlying metrics are promising, with a 92.1 mph average exit velocity and a 9.1% barrel rate.

Roden is inexpensive and faces Colin Rea, who has struggled against lefties with a 7.8% K-BB% and a 4.22 FIP. This favorable matchup could allow Roden to exceed his low price point.