MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Props: Monday (7/20) Starting Pitchers

The MLB DFS main slate for Monday, July 20th, includes 14 games kicking off at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. This briefing highlights key starting pitcher rankings, potential lineup stacks, and top Underdog player props to consider.

Monday's Top Starting Pitchers (7/20)

Jacob Misiorowski (SP – MIL) vs. New York Mets

Jacob Misiorowski has been an elite pitcher this season, leading the Majors in ERA (1.62), xERA (2.06), xFIP (2.10), SIERA (2.20), WHIP (0.76), and strikeout rate (39.6%) among qualified pitchers Source. He also ranks first in swinging-strike rate (17.2%), called-plus-swinging-strike rate (34.8%), stuff+ (127), and pitching+ (128). The Brewers are -190 favorites, with a pitcher-friendly game total of 7.5 runs.

Misiorowski faces a favorable matchup against the Mets, who are tied for 26th in wRC+ (91) with a 21.8% strikeout rate versus right-handers. On the road, New York is 28th in wRC+ (83) with a 22.5% strikeout rate. In the last 30 days, the Mets are tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) with a 21.9% strikeout rate.

Payton Tolle (SP – BOS) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Payton Tolle has impressed this season, holding a 3.11 ERA, 3.02 xERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 25.5% strikeout rate across 15 starts and 84 innings Source. The Red Sox are -140 favorites, with the game's total set at 8.5 runs.

His matchup against the Orioles is also favorable. Baltimore is tied for 18th in wRC+ (94) with a 25.5% strikeout rate versus left-handers, and tied for 22nd in wRC+ (90) with a 26.4% strikeout rate on the road this year. Over the last 30 days, they are tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) with a 25.9% strikeout rate.

Ryan Weathers (SP – NYY) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Ryan Weathers presents a mixed bag for managers. While his 4.15 ERA, 4.40 xERA, and 1.24 WHIP are underwhelming, his 3.28 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA, 6.6% walk rate, and 26.9% strikeout rate are more promising Source. The Yankees are -120 favorites, and the total is 7.5 runs.

The Pirates are first in wRC+ (128) with a 24.9% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. However, against left-handers, Pittsburgh is 17th in wRC+ (95) with a 25.6% strikeout rate, and on the road, they are tied for 11th in wRC+ (100) with a 25.5% strikeout rate.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves (vs. JP Sears)

The Braves are a strong stacking option against JP Sears, who has struggled in the Majors this season with a 5.03 ERA, 5.39 xERA, 4.47 xFIP, and 4.58 SIERA in four starts Source. Sears has allowed a .359 wOBA to right-handed batters this year and a .351 wOBA to righties in 2025. The Braves are home favorites at Truist Park, with a game total of 9.0 runs.

San Francisco Giants (vs. Michael Wacha)

The Giants should benefit from playing outside their pitcher-friendly home park, traveling to Kauffman Stadium, which has a 114 park factor for runs in 2026 Source. Michael Wacha, their opponent, has a 3.77 ERA and 4.13 xERA this season, allowing a .301 wOBA to lefties and a .325 wOBA to righties.

Core Studs for DFS

• Kyle Schwarber: With 33 HRs, a .368 OBP, and a 150 wRC+ this season, Schwarber is a top hitter.
• Ozzie Albies: Albies has a .309 OBP, .170 ISO, and 107 wRC+ against left-handers since 2024.
• Bryce Eldridge: Eldridge has tallied 10 HRs, a .368 OBP, and 138 wRC+ in 231 plate appearances this year.

Value Plays / Punts

• Kyle Karros: Karros boasts a .361 OBP, .179 ISO, and 106 wRC+ against lefties at home in his career.
• Josh Lowe: From June 24th to July 17th, Lowe recorded 3 HRs, 9 runs, 8 RBI, and a 110 wRC+ in 54 plate appearances.
• Joey Bart: Bart has hit 9 HRs with a .365 OBP and 129 wRC+ against left-handers since 2024.

Monday's Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Yordan Alvarez (OF – HOU): 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Yordan Alvarez is having an exceptional season, with 115 hits, 31 home runs, 65 runs, and 73 RBI through 434 plate appearances. He holds a .319 batting average, .429 OBP, .314 ISO, and 187 wRC+ Source. Betting on the 'higher' for his combined hits, runs, and RBIs could be a strong play.

Matt Olson (1B – ATL): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Matt Olson has accumulated 103 hits, including 26 home runs, 67 runs, and 59 RBI in 431 plate appearances. He has performed particularly well against southpaws since 2024, with 25 homers, a .271 batting average, and a 123 wRC+ Source. The 'higher' prop for his combined stats is worth considering.